Economic Theory

Applied Evolutionary Economics and Complex Systems by John Foster, Werner Holzl

By John Foster, Werner Holzl

Debates the facets of complexity and evolution in utilized contexts recognising that smooth evolutionary economics is at a crossroads. Foster is from college of Queensland.

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If we think of any economic system as a dissipative structure that imports energy and materials and export products, this structure tends to become both more ordered and more complex as it develops. However, structure by necessity involves orderings which exhibit a degree of irreversibility. This irreversibility places a boundary on the extent to which the structure can develop. We can give expression to this tendency in quite a simple way if we translate everything into value terms. 4) or where Y is the value flow of output characteristics of a system, W is the output value flow loss in a system due to wear and tear, breakdowns and so forth, and Z is the output value flow increase due to new investments.

Thus in such studies it is implicitly accepted that a tendency towards saturation in a technological diffusion process is not a tendency towards a stable equilibrium. Foster and Wild (1999a) show that the particular ALDM growth trajectory that they studied is not mean reverting. But it is also not a random walk, with or without drift. The level of the variable under investigation and the (moving) capacity limit are not linearly co-integrated. Thus, in the case considered, it is difficult to argue that the observed ALDM provides evidence in support of an equilibrium/disequilibrium process, from the standpoint of either deterministic or stochastic trends in time-series data.

R. T. Sayers (eds), Surveys in Econometrics, Oxford: Blackwell. Potts, J. (2000), The New Evolutionary Microeconomics: Complexity, Competence and Adaptive Behaviour, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, USA: Edward Elgar. Sarkar, J. (1998), ‘Technological diffusion: alternative theories and historical evidence’, Journal of Economic Surveys, 12, 131–76. A. (1933), ‘The common sense of econometrics’, Econometrica, 1, 5–12. F. (1989), A New Theory of Economic Growth, Oxford: Clarendon Press. A. (1980), ‘Macroeconomics and reality’, Econometrica, 48, 1–48.

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